understanding drift and probability

[flims]

Since im setting up the video clips and everytime and i can only upload so much i am adding this for further info and later i will include the videos on this thread. im taking an example of engaging 1Mil size targets at 2 different distances with my 0.25 FAC 924ft/s 31grain - 80m and 120m

so how does one go about estimating his hit probability on this?by time you will be able to tell but lets look at more concrete factors. i have drawn the targets and where you would expect a hit to occur given 4 differnt velocities blowing at 90degree AKA Fullvalue wind to the path of the projectile.

winds used are
1mph (barely felt but will move hanging strips of leaves slightly)
3mph - barely felt on your face and eyes /eyelashes feel it they are sensitive
5mph- can be heard echoing in your ear, moves your hair slightly and comparable to a fan you might have in the kitchen on lowest power
8mph - this will usually move your hair slightly if you have it kinda longish and is about full power of a fan, on most of the ones i tested its number 3.

im assuming this wind is blowing in the first 60-70meters to the target, this in my experience will influence the most on an air rifle. these numbers im giving here are from my personal experience and what i log in from when i shoot so they are dependable and if you have a setup like mine you can try them.

now i check my wind clock at 80m window and see what it says well have a look here.
http://pic18.picturetrail.com/VOL888.../341888810.jpg
Since my wind is full value i dont have to work out anything.
looking at this diagram we can see why it can be so challenging to make hits on target but also why it can make you a much better shot shooting like this. as you can see this is not like centerfire shooting where a 5mph increment will do, you have to be more exact in your judgement if you want a hit.
A,B,C,D are impact points according to the 4 different wind velocities assuming you held dead center on target. i drew some further low because of lack of space. in the 120m example the shot in 8mph is off the paper even
http://pic18.picturetrail.com/VOL888.../341888806.jpg
here are the figures better illustrated and you can compare them to see how difficulty increases.
http://pic18.picturetrail.com/VOL888.../341888811.jpg
imagine this was 120m instead of 125 as shown here.
http://pic18.picturetrail.com/VOL888.../341888809.jpg
1.5mils of windage would mean 18cm/7.2" of drift on that particular day.

in both scenarios, to make a hit on that target without compensation for wind watsoever, you would need a DEAD calm day.
in the 1st example at 80m you could make a hit in
1)dead calm conditions no wind watsoever or
2)in a 3mph wind if you held to the other side of the plate.

in case 2 at 120m, you can only make a hit without compensation in DEAD calm no wind day otherwise not even an Edge of plate hold will get you a hit.

the video i will be showing you is all filmed past 120m.
the Metric scopes allow you do dial in this Windage easier or even hold it off,
say if i have to compensate for a 3mile/hour wind at 120m the correction is 1.2mil, i can dial in 0.2 and hold off 1 full mil Right. they really facilitate this.
The wind clock has probably been the most revolutionary gadget i made up in this and the most helpful one with the wind meter. i have tried the wind clock at all distances to 150m with a very high success rate, +80% at inside 80meters i have even been able to read a wind, calculate drift, dial it and make hits on a 0.75" steel pole which needless to say left me very impressed. Much of the data is thanks to Chairgun and alot of real world shooting and notes i listed.
ihope that after the clips, you will see things abit differently and that its not luck but it can be done methodically if conditions are relatively consistant.