Wow!
If you’re consistently hitting a ¾” pole @ 80 m then Dr. Mann must have been right all along … but then his august work was never really in doubt, was it?
An interesting use of the ‘Mil’ as a measurement of angle (you’re not an artillery gunner are you?). Please excuse my ignorance in these matters but do folk generally use Mils (or milliradians) for measuring displacements?
If so, would it be of some benefit if the next ChairGun version had milliradians as an alternative to MoA, clicks and Mil-Dots?
Say now or forever hold your … whatever.
The probability part of you title is much more, er, problematical.
With anything up to ~3% variation in BC for pellets of similar weight from the same batch, ~1% variation in MV from a well regulated PCP, the practically un-measurable variations in the wind vector and the implicit accuracy of the rifle/shooter combination, actual deflection is always going to be something of a guess. Mann’s expression can be used to calculate the limits of the deviation (using MV, the magnitude of the wind-vector and using the BC value to calculate the flight-time) and to that you need to add your estimate of implicit accuracy. Having calculated/guessed at the possible range of the deviations you could then assume that the deviation follows the normal distribution (a valid enough assumption in the circumstances) and then use that to estimate the statistical probabilities involved. i.e., if we assume that the difference between the maximum and minimum deviations equates to 6 standard deviations (SD) then 94% of the possibilities lie within +/- 2 SD of the mean position, 68% within +/- 1 SD, 38% within +/- 0.5 SD, and so on.
You might want to look at the WindCalc application that I uploaded to the www.chairgun.com site a while ago (Software page, towards the bottom).
I particularly like the idea of the ‘wind-clock’ – I’ve not seen the like before. Hmmm, I think I feel a new ChairGun3 applet coming on …
ATB
Dave
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." Albert Einstein.